An unprecedented gathering of local government officials plus over 100 people from the Santa Barbara area met at the Cabrillo Arts Center to hear a summary of the Regional Impacts of Growth Study (RIGS), to which UCSB geographers consulted. Professor Keith Clarke and graduate students Ryan Aubry and Jeff Onsted created analytic methods and models, geographic information system databases, and maps of the South Coast region for 1960, 2000, and six potential scenarios in 2040.
RIGS was sponsored by the Santa Barbara Region Economic Community project (ECP), a non-profit organization founded in the early 1990s that has been concerned with building a healthy economy (high wages, low-impact jobs) while maintaining quality in the environment and living conditions. ECP feels strongly that the only way we can create a positive future for the community this is through regional cooperation of governments and agencies. The growth study, RIGS, was begun approximately three years ago to provide information about what might happen if governmental planning rules remained as they are today and if they were changed to five different scenarios. ECP’s goal was not to tell planners and citizens what to do, but to show the options and the likely results so that better choices and more cooperation were possible.
The six scenarios were Existing Policies, Widespread [Growth], No Growth, New Neighborhoods, Infill, and All Affordable. Existing Policies assumed full build out, maintaining the current Urban Limit Line, and letting new development be driven primarily by market forces. Widespread [Growth] doubled the number of units from that in Existing Policies, eliminated the Urban Limit Line, and allowed market forces to drive development unchecked. No Growth assumed no additional development except one new home on every vacant residential lot and a small commercial building on every vacant commercial lot. Preservation of open space would be maximized. New Neighborhoods doubled the houses from Existing Policies, expanding the Urban Limit Line to allow the new neighborhoods. Infill retained the Urban Limit Line while allowing denser development in existing urban areas (including urban agricultural parcels). All Affordable limited residential development to restricted affordable housing only.
Surprisingly, population is expected to increase, then decrease in all six scenarios. This is because the price of housing is expected to continue outpacing wages. More and more, wealthy adults rather than working families are predicted to populate the area. That means fewer people per acre, which translates into diminished population.
The meeting at the Arts Center launched the report of the study to the community. The Mayor and all the Santa Barbara City Council members were present, as were a quorum of the Santa Barbara county Board of Supervisors, City Council members for Carpinteria, the Mayor and at least one other person from the City of Goleta, plus one person from the City of Santa Maria. This was the first time all these City and County government officials had ever met together.
