In an article published in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, doctors Paul Wheatley-Price, Brian Hutton, and Mark Clemons express concern about the Mayan doomsday effect on survival outcomes in clinical trials. According to the abstract, “There is a great deal of speculation concerning the end of the world in December 2012, coinciding with the end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar (the “Maya calendar”). Such an event would undoubtedly affect population survival and, thus, survival outcomes in clinical trials. Here, we discuss how the outcomes of clinical trials may be affected by the extinction of all mankind and recommend appropriate changes to their conduct. In addition, we use computer modelling to show the effect of the apocalypse on a sample clinical trial” (doi: 10.1503/cmaj.121616 CMAJ December 11, 2012 vol. 184 no. 18 2021-2022).
The University of Ottawa researchers glumly conclude that the effect of the Mayan Doomsday (which they refer to as MaD) “will have catastrophic effects on statistical analyses of survival incomes. We therefore recommend that all clinical trials should stop immediately, as MaD will negate all potential trial results.” Actually the researchers qualify that last statement, pointing out that the survival rate of the post-MaD population will not drop to zero if people unlikely to be affected by the apocalypse (“e.g., astronauts currently aboard the international space station, as well as zombies, the undead, the Grateful Dead, Dungeons and Dragons players, men who have read Fifty Shades of Grey, and other similar beings”) are factored in, and they refer to this rise in the obliteration curve as “zombie repopulation.”
The researchers also did additional modeling to assess the effects of MaD on a sample clinical trial comparing 2 fictional, although completely plausible, drugs. “When the effect of MaD is added to the model, no difference in survival can be seen between the 2 drugs. Furthermore, any adverse events would not be able to be recorded owing to ‘the mother of all adverse events,’ and any statistical signifcance between study groups would be lost.”
In conclusion, the authors state that “Mad is bad.” According to one reporting source, “Wheatley-Price has no special plans for Dec. 21 (or, for that matter, expectations that doomsday or zombies are in the future). If doomsday were really to come, he said, he doesn’t know what he’d do. ‘Probably have a drink,’ he said.”
Article by Bill Norrington
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